There is a post on Alternet by one Gary Saperstein in which he predicts that Obama will win the presidential race in a blowout. He cites the generally bad political environment for Republicans, Obama's superior fund-raising and the idea that McCain will prove gaff-prone. He argues that Obama will end up with 300-350 electoral votes.
One of my recommended links is to RealClearPolitics.com. It IS a right-wing site but is tracking polling information in many of the battleground states and so is a good resource.
Ohio (20 Electoral Votes (EV)), Pennsylvania (21 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), Iowa (7 EV), Missouri (11 EV), New Mexico (5 EV), Nevada (5 EV), Colorado (9 EV), Michigan (17 EV), New Hampshire (4 EV), Virginia (13 EV) and North Carolina (15 EV) all show only single-digit margins for one of the candidates, as does the nationwide popular vote total. That's 137 electoral votes total.
Interestingly enough, RCP doesn't have a polling list for Indiana, which surprisingly is also in play. Pollster.com has three late-April polls that show each with an eight-point lead and one statistical tie.
Given an element of racism that some voters will have; given the snit that some Clinton votes will still be in and given that some of the God, guns and gays crowd will support McCain, I wouldn't feel terribly comfortable predicting a blowout, although I do feel the trend favors Obama.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
0 comments:
Post a Comment