International Crisis Group take on Iraq, part 2

The ICQ's companion report discusses the four main areas where a political reconciliation would need to happen: Hydrocarbons legislation, resolution of the federalism issue, provincial elections and de-Ba'athification. One interesting point is how what is perceived by some as sectarian warfare is actually a group of intra-communal conflicts.

No bill regarding developing Iraqi oil resources has been passed. One part of the controversy involves who has the ultimate say in signing off on oil contracts in an area. This ties in to the Arab-Kurdish divide over the demarcation of the Kurdish region. There has been no significant progress in either.

Further, the ISCI (former SCIRI) and Kurd factions insist on extreme decentralization and have dragged their feet on provincial elections that may erode their current power. In response to its own question about the possibility of compromise, the report concludes that "forces seem
diametrically opposed without a clear mechanism for resolving the question."

These problems may be resolvable, but it's important to note that any security gains to which the surge may have contributed were supposed to be a means, not an end.