Election prognostication, 2 of 2

Here is Lichtman's take on the 2008 election. He predicted a Democratic victory. For a discussion of his theory, see my last post.

He stated that the mandate key (based on representation in the House) turned against the Republicans as a result of the 2006 election and that they wouldn't have the incumbency key. However, he also stated that the Republicans would lose the party contest key. In fact, McCain became the presumptive nominee early on in the campaign and has considerably more than 2/3s of the delegates.

He asserted that the Republicans lost the policy change key; and there haven't been any successful initiatives since then. Had Bush's immigration reform passed, perhaps that would've counted. Lichtman argued that Iraq cost Bush both the foreign policy failure key and the success key. I think this also has been overtaken by events. The surge can't be considered a strategic success by any means as there hasn't been any movement towards a political solution in Iraq. However, it has achieved tactical success and the tamping down of violence that it was a part of (though not the only part) does keep it off the radar of the voting public so that the failure key arguably won't turn against him. He still won't get the success key though.

He then argued that the Republicans wouldn't get the charisma/hero key. Although McCain deserves respect for what he went through as a POW, the hero key appears to tie in with people seen as a key part of a national success. Being a Vietnam POW doesn't meet that standard.

So of the six keys that Lichtman had turn against the Republicans in his October 2007 piece, events have intervened that only have four turn against them.

He has three keys that turn in the Republicans' favor. First, the lack of serious social unrest. Second, the lack of any major scandal. Things such as the torture discussion or the Plame incident simply didn't touch the White House. Arguably they should have but that isn't the political reality. Finally, he argued that the Democrats aren't likely to have anyone who turns the charisma key. That is borderline in my opinion. Certainly Obama has tremendous oratorical and political skills. Whether its on a par with a Roosevelt or a JFK is an interesting question.

Finally, he has three uncertain keys. First, the third-party key. He speculated about a Bloomberg candidacy. That won't happen but I have to wonder if Bob Barr's Libertarian campaign will draw off enough McCain supporters to reach the 5% mark. I think the presumption has to be no, but it is a rebuttable presumption.

Both economic keys were marked as uncertain by him. I believe that they turn against the Republicans. Regarding the recession key; whether we will technically be in a recession is less important than the public perception. CNN.com reported that the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index (ETI) indicated that the job market would continue to sink. Further, unemployment and job losses have risen this year. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level in 28 years. Here are some polls from pollingreport.com indicating the same trend.

Likewise, per capita GDP, although higher in Bush's second term than in his first, is still lower (and here) than the average of the last two terms. 4.7% average growth in Clinton's second term and 3.5% in Bush's first term for an average of 4.1%. The numbers I have for the last three years average out at 4.5. However, if the 2008 figure comes out at 2.5% or less, the second-term average would go below 4.1%. Even if we don't have a recession (negative growth), the slowing economy should come in below that number. I eagerly welcome any correction of these numbers.

To sum up, the mandate, incumbency, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, foreign/military success keys turn against the Republicans--hitting the six minimum needed to defeat the GOP. If Obama turns out to be charismatic enough to turn the charisma key or the Barr candidacy gets any traction (by third-party standards), it could be seven or eight.